5 July 2013 – Question: In Egypt, when is authoritarianism better than democracy?

5 July 2013 –  

Quiz International Affairs 101:

Question: In Egypt, when is authoritarianism better than democracy? 

A)   Never

B)   When authoritarianism reestablishes stability and economic prosperity out of the chaos of failed democracy

C)   When it serves U.S. interests 

Answer A. Some Americans contend that democracy has the inherent power to build any country and its people into a vibrant and modern nation.  A cursory read of U.S. history shows that our early republic’s leaders delayed for decades a horrific civil war before it admitted that constitutional rights and freedoms extend to all citizens and that the union of the states is paramount to continued peace and prosperity.  It was a long and bloody process for us, with no assurance that it would succeed.  But, our nation survived this painful maturation in no small part because we had unique advantages.  We were geographically isolated from the great powers of the world, were able to expand westward across a vast continent as a means to mitigate economic and population issues, and tolerated each others’ religions fairly well.  We grew up, protected by oceans and deserts. 

Egypt does not have these advantages.  The world carefully watches Egypt’s recurring episodes of violence, often from military bases within hours of Egypt’s borders.  Egypt cannot close these borders and sustain itself during such violence because its economy relies heavily on outside money, e.g., tourism, use of the Suez Canal, and foreign aid.  Tourism in 2013 is down 75% from 2008 levels; political dissidents quickly become rioters when they are broke.  Perhaps Egypt’s most important disadvantage is that being Egyptian is less important to those in Cairo and Alexandria than being American is to a Houstonian or a New Yorker.  Egypt’s population comprises fundamental religious elements that refuse to subordinate themselves to secular rule of law, something that the American model shows is necessary for democracy to thrive.  The Moslem Brotherhood exploited democracy to attain power and to establish a theocratic government, based on its version of Islam.  There is no democratic model in history that has thrived by using such a strategy.  Egypt won’t be the first. 

Answer B is correct.  Authoritarian rule by the Egyptian army probably is necessary at this time to reestablish the stability and economic order required for nascent democracy to take firm root.  Democracies, in order to mature and to assume a premier place in the allegiance of their peoples, need strong economic underpinnings.  Immature economic supports usually collapse during unrest.  It is necessary to resolve the violence, establish order, and allow the people to get back to work.  The Egyptian army can best do that.  For now, Egypt is better off under army rule than it was under Moslem Brotherhood rule.  

Answer C also is correct.  The U.S. should be involved now with Egypt because it is in our strategic interests to do so.  The Suez Canal, an oil artery to Europe, must stay open.  Israel needs to know that its southern border won’t explode with violence and give reason to start another war.  Egypt is the traditional leader in the Arab Moslem world, academically, religiously, and culturally.  Our having a working relationship with Egypt may influence the rest of the Moslem world to work with the U.S. as well.  Finally, keeping Egypt from descending into a poor, fundamentalist state will help keep Islamic fundamentalist terrorism out of U.S. streets.  Order, stability, and prosperity in Egypt are in America’s strategic interests.  It is worth the couple of billion in yearly foreign aid to keep the Egyptian army a professional and supportive force. 

What about tomorrow?  Next month?  Lord Acton best expressed the risk that comes with authoritarian rule: “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely in such manner that great men are almost always bad men."   U.S. and other western nations’ influence with the Egyptian army can help prevent another dictatorship in Cairo.  Our outside influence on the great men of the Egyptian army to restore order and to build a workable democracy is much greater than any influence on the great men of the Moslem Brotherhood to do the same.   

I was in Egypt in 1982 for the combined USAF/Egyptian Air Force exercise, PROUD PHANTOM.  From the young Egyptian Air Force officers whom I met, there may still be a few who can rise to the challenge, justly govern, and then step aside when it is time for the people to govern.  It is up to them now to do just that.