Mac-Coleman

21 June 2014 –

Turkey Is the Key

The President has mishandled the crisis in Iraq.   Never mind that the previous administration probably should not have invaded Iraq in 2003.  Never mind that the previous administration waffled until 2007 before committing sufficient troops to create the conditions necessary for nation-building and long-term peace.  Presidents inherit situations and become personally responsible for them.   

What matters now is, that stability in Iraq was finally achieved by 2007, that President Obama inherited a legitimate chance to solidify that stability, and that his inattention threw that chance away.  Now, he faces chaos and must do something to regain the confidence of the American people.  But, where is his strategy?  His record is one of throwing tactical solutions at strategic problems, publically hoping that crises will pass.  Hope, however, is not a strategy.  

What should be the U.S.’s strategy to protect vital U.S. interests in the region?  We must first identify those vital interests.  I suggest the following: 1) the unimpeded flow of oil out of Iraq; 2) the suppression of jihadist violence against the U.S. and her allies; 3) the protection of Israel’s sovereignty; 4) stability among the myriad players in the region. 

Next, we must identify major players who share our common interests and can actually help us achieve it.    

First. Iran benefits if Iraq’s southern oil production is disrupted or if Iran controls it.  Iran openly supports jihadist violence against the U.S. and our interests, proven by Iran’s long-term funding of radical violence in Syria, Lebanon, the West Bank, and elsewhere.  Iran continually declares its intention to wipe Israel off the map, using its soon-to-be-deployed nuclear weapons.  Clearly, Iran foments violence to achieve its objectives. 

There is no common area in which the U.S. should work with Iran to achieve our objectives.  Iran is an enemy, period. 

Second.  Iraq’s Shi’ite-dominated government under Nouri al-Malaki is incapable of helping the U.S. achieve any objectives.  It could have evolved into a capable friend if President Obama had continued with the Bush administration’s commitment to professionalize the Iraqi Army, institutionalize the rule of law, and create a nation-wide sense of being Iraqi.  It’s too late for that now.  President Obama, always playing catch-up, must “reset” his thinking to mitigate the chaos resulting from his pullout of U.S. troops.  Iraq is quiet about it now, but it still refuses to accept Israel’s right to exist. 

There is no common area where the U.S. can rely on the Iraqi government to help achieve our objectives. 

Third.  Saudi Arabia stands to gain if Iraqi oil production is disrupted.  Saudi Arabia also is the world’s biggest funder of Sunni jihadist violence throughout the Middle East and Africa.  The Sunni-dominated Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) may have gone too far in Iraq to suit some in the Saudi government, but the current pressure on Iran and the Shi’ites in Southern Iraq is welcomed by the rulers in Riyadh.  Of course, Saudi Arabia has always refused to recognize Israel’s right to exist.  Finally, the Wahabbist Saudis view unrest in the region as acceptable as long as it advances their form of medieval Islam. 

There is no common area in which we can work with Saudi Arabia to achieve U.S. objectives in the area.

Fourth.  Turkey benefits from a continued flow of oil from Northern Iraq and Kurdistan through Turkey to the Mediterranean.  Turkey is the U.S.’s formal NATO ally and has worked with us to condemn jihadist violence in the West.  Even under Prime Minister Erdogan’s increasingly radical and corrupt direction, Turkey understands that Israel’s sovereignty ultimately benefits Turkey.  Finally, Turkey’s geographic prominence has enabled the Byzantines to the Ottomans to the Turks to dominate the Levant by controlling northern access into the Tigris and Euphrates valleys.  Our not working openly with the Turkish government from the beginning of the Syrian conflict, in order to prevent radical expansion into Iraq, showed our shallow understanding of how to build and execute workable strategies in this complicated region.  

Turkey has a military trained, manned, and equipped to NATO standards.  It is the obvious choice as our lead partner.  A Turkish-U.S. force could move into Northern Syria and Iraq, cut off ISIS from its base of operations, and cause it to wither all along the southern borders of Turkey.  Our combined force could then stabilize the Turkish and Arab community in Northern Iraq, ensure continued oil production in Northern Iraq and Kurdistan, and facilitate oil delivery through Turkey to world markets.  The world would then focus on a separate conflict south of Baghdad, with Iran as the obvious villain. 

Oil flows, terrorism and the Syrian conflict are contained, Iran is discredited, and Turkey and the United States benefit. 

Turkey is the key.  Where are we?